announcements

Specifically for meta-information about the site

NYC and NYMA Pop Change Graph 2000 to 2019

New York’s Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s

The Weissman Center for International Business at Baruch College just published my paper, “New York’s Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s“, as part of their Occasional Paper Series. In the paper I study population trends over the last ten years for both New York City (NYC) and the greater New York Metropolitan Area (NYMA) using annual population estimates from the Census Bureau (vintage 2019), county to county migration data (2011-2018) from the IRS SOI, and the American Community Survey (2014-2018). I compare NYC to the nine counties that are home to the largest cities in the US (cities with population greater than 1 million) and the NYMA to the 13 largest metro areas (population over 4 million) to provide some context. I conclude with a brief discussion of the potential impact of COVID-19 on both the 2020 census count and future population growth. Most of the analysis was conducted using Python and Pandas in Jupyter Notebooks available on my GitHub. I discussed my method for creating rank change grids, which appear in the paper’s appendix and illustrate how the sources and destinations for migrants change each year, in my previous post.

Terminology

  • Natural increase: the difference between births and deaths
  • Domestic migration: moves between two points within the United States
  • Foreign migration: moves between the United States and a US territory or foreign country
  • Net migration: the difference between in-migration and out-migration (measured separately for domestic and foreign)
  • NYC: the five counties / boroughs that comprise New York City
  • NYMA: the New York Metropolitan Area as defined by the Office of Management and Budget in Sept 2018, consists of 10 counties in NY State (including the 5 NYC counties), 12 in New Jersey, and one in Pennsylvania
Map of the New York Metropolitan Area
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Area

Highlights

  • Population growth in both NYC and the NYMA was driven by positive net foreign migration and natural increase, which offset negative net domestic migration.
  • Population growth for both NYC and the NYMA was strong over the first half of the decade, but population growth slowed as domestic out-migration increased from 2011 to 2017.
  • NYC and the NYMA began experiencing population loss from 2017 forward, as both foreign migration and natural increase began to decelerate. Declines in foreign migration are part of a national trend; between 2016 and 2019 net foreign migration for the US fell by 43% (from 1.05 million to 595 thousand).
  • The city and metro’s experience fit within national trends. Most of the top counties in the US that are home to the largest cities and many of the largest metropolitan areas experienced slower population growth over the decade. In addition to NYC, three counties: Cook (Chicago), Los Angeles, and Santa Clara (San Jose) experienced actual population loss towards the decade’s end. The New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago metro areas also had declining populations by the latter half of the decade.
  • Most of NYC’s domestic out-migrants moved to suburban counties within the NYMA (representing 38% of outflows and 44% of net out-migration), and to Los Angeles County, Philadelphia County, and counties in Florida. Out-migrants from the NYMA moved to other large metros across the country, as well as smaller, neighboring metros like Poughkeepsie NY, Fairfield CT, and Trenton NJ. Metro Miami and Philadelphia were the largest sources of both in-migrants and out-migrants.
  • NYC and the NYMA lack any significant relationships with other counties and metro areas where they are net receivers of domestic migrants, receiving more migrants from those places than they send to those places.
  • NYC and the NYMA are similar to the cities and metros of Los Angeles and Chicago, in that they rely on high levels foreign migration and natural increase to offset high levels of negative domestic migration, and have few substantive relationships where they are net receivers of domestic migrants. Academic research suggests that the absolute largest cities and metros behave this way; attracting both low and high skilled foreign migrants while redistributing middle and working class domestic migrants to suburban areas and smaller metros. This pattern of positive foreign migration offsetting negative domestic migration has characterized population trends in NYC for many decades.
  • During the 2010s, most of the City and Metro’s foreign migrants came from Latin America and Asia. Compared to the US as a whole, NYC and the NYMA have slightly higher levels of Latin American and European migrants and slightly lower levels of Asian and African migrants.
  • Given the Census Bureau’s usual residency concept and the overlap in the onset the of COVID-19 pandemic lock down with the 2020 Census, in theory the pandemic should not alter how most New Yorkers identify their usual residence as of April 1, 2020. In practice, the pandemic has been highly disruptive to the census-taking process, which raises the risk of an under count.
  • The impact of COVID-19 on future domestic migration is difficult to gauge. Many of the pandemic destinations cited in recent cell phone (NYT and WSJ) and mail forwarding (NYT) studies mirror the destinations that New Yorkers have moved to between 2011 and 2018. Foreign migration will undoubtedly decline in the immediate future given pandemic disruptions, border closures, and restrictive immigration policies. The number of COVID-19 deaths will certainly push down natural increase for 2020.

atcoordinates YouTube Channel

Video Tutorials for Finding US Census Data

I have recently created an atcoordinates YouTube channel that features a series of how-to videos on finding and accessing US census data using a variety of websites and tools. I explain basic census concepts while demonstrating how to access data. At this point there are four videos:

  1. Exploring US Census Data: Basic Concepts. This is a narrated slide show where I cover the essential choices you need to make and concepts you need to understand in order to access census data, regardless of the tool or platform: data set, time period, subjects or topics, and geography. I discuss the decennial census, American Community Survey, and population estimates. This video is intended as a prerequisite for viewing the others, so I don’t have to explain the same concepts each time and can focus on demonstrating each particular application.
  2. American Community Survey Census Profiles with MCDC Apps. This screencast illustrates how you can quickly and easily access census profiles for any place in the US using the Missouri Census Data Center’s profile applications. It’s also a good introduction to census data in general, if you’re unfamiliar with the scope of data that’s available.
  3. Search Strategies for data.census.gov. I demonstrate how to use the Census Bureau’s primary application for accessing current census data, using the advanced search tool and filters.
  4. Using TIGERweb to Explore US Census Geography. I show you how to use this web map application for viewing census geography, while explaining what some of the small-area census geographies are.

I plan on adding additional videos every month or so. The pandemic lock down and uncertainty over whether classes will be back in session this fall inspired me to do this. While I prefer written tutorials, I find that I’ve been watching YouTube more often for learning how to do certain tasks with particular software, so I thought this would be useful for others. The videos average about 10 to 15 minutes in length, although the introductory one is a bit longer. The length is intentional; I wanted to explain the concepts and describe why you’re making certain choices, instead of simply pointing and clicking without any explanation.

Feel free to spread the news, share and embed the videos in research guides or web pages, and use them in classes or workshops. Of course, for a more in-depth look at US census data, check out my book: Exploring the US Census: Your Guide to America’s Data published by SAGE.

QGIS 3.10 Screenshot

QGIS 3.10 Tutorial Workbook

I just posted an updated version of my QGIS tutorial / workbook manual, Introduction to GIS Using Open Source Software. This version was written for QGIS 3.10 A Coruña, which recently superseded QGIS 3.4 Madeira as the current Long Term Release (LTR). The LTR is intended to be more stable than the current releases and is supported for at least a year.

The workbook was designed to accompany a day-long introductory workshop that I teach and is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 is a broad and concise overview of GIS, chapters 2 to 4 are hands-on exercises that cover: the basics of using the interface and the difference between vectors and rasters (chapter 2), a site selection analysis that demonstrates geoprocessing, spatial selection, table joins, coordinate plotting, expressions, and spatial analysis (chapter 3), and a thematic mapping example that illustrates coordinate reference systems (CRS), data classification, and mapping (chapter 4). Chapter 5 summarizes data sources and resources for learning more about GIS. In chapters 2 to 4 the steps for doing the exercises are kept concise with many screenshots, while detailed commentary explaining how everything works follows.

The manual and tutorial data are freely available for personal and classroom use under a Creative Commons license. I’m providing the material for both 3.10 A Coruna and 3.4 Madeira for now, but will take down the latter at the end of the spring semester (late May 2020).

The changes between 3.4 and 3.10 are not dramatic as far as the basic tools and principles that I cover in the book go, but I thought an update was worthwhile as there are just enough changes that could trip up new users (see the 3.10 visual change log for a full list of software updates).  In addition to incorporating changes to the interface, I also took the opportunity to tighten up and condense the material. In particular, I consolidated the coordinate reference system (CRS) exercises in chapter 4 from two sections to one, because in practice I found that it was overkill for a one-day session.

Here are a few noteworthy changes to the tutorial and software that impact novice users:

  1. The default setting for the toolbar buttons is rather small, so during the setup phase in chapter 2 I inserted an optional step to make them bigger. Go to: Settings > Options > General tab, and under the Application section change the icon size from 16 to 24.
  2. In 3.10, when new files are generated from geoprocessing operations and added to your project, the layers appear in the layers panel with the name you give them. In 3.4 they were assigned generic aliases like “Clipped” and “Buffer” based on the process you ran.
  3. In 3.10 the “Quantiles” classification scheme has been replaced with “Equal Counts”. Same scheme, different terminology.
  4. There’s now a dedicated north arrow button in the map layout screen. In 3.4 and earlier versions you added an arrow by selecting the add image button.
  5. In 3.10, every time you add a layer with a CRS that doesn’t match the existing CRS of the window, you’re presented with a datum transformation screen to modify the file you’re adding. This is a helpful warning if you already have existing layers in your project that match the window and your new file doesn’t, but it’s annoying when you’re trying to add files to a blank window in a new project. You can turn this feature off under: Options > Settings > CRS tab, under Default Datum Transformations uncheck the box for Ask for datum transformation.

It’s hard to believe that this is the 10th edition I’ve published in the past ten years. QGIS has certainly come a long way during that time. For a trip down memory lane, look at the 1st edition I wrote for QGIS 1.5 Tethys in 2011! Back then I wrote the whole thing in HTML… thankfully I “discovered” LaTeX a year later, and have used it for writing tutorials ever since.

If you wanted to learn GIS in general and QGIS in particular, spend a day with the manual and work through the exercises and you’ll have a good foundation. All the basics are there, as well as best practices and the “gotchas” that tend to trip people up.

datacensusgov

data.census.gov is down? Here are some work-arounds

NOTE – the website has returned to normal, but I’m leaving this post up in case the problem ever reoccurs.

So data.census.gov is not working today. I went there repeatedly and got an empty white screen each time, regardless of which web browser I tried. My wife spotted a post on an urban planning listserv where someone wrote that they contacted the Census Bureau. The Bureau was aware of the problem, but due of staff shortages related to COVID-19 it could take a week to fix!

Fortunately there are work-arounds. The post provided links to some suggestions at the State Data Center Clearing House. The first suggestion is to use the Chrome Browser, clear your cache, and try going directly to the advanced search link at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/advanced. This didn’t work for me, so I looked at the second suggestion, which is to create deep links to specific tables and search results. This worked, but if you’re not intimately familiar with census geography and table identifiers this could be tough going.

The good news is that if you can just get to one table, that gets you in the backdoor, bypassing the initial search screens that aren’t loading. From there you can use the filter in the table search results to find what you want. For example, go here:

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?g=0100000US&tid=ACSDP5Y2018.DP05

This brings you to the 5-year 2018 Data Profile table for Demographic and Housing for the United States. From there you can click the Filter button in the upper left-hand corner above the table name.

Filter Results Link

In the filter screen, scroll down to the bottom and hit the Clear All button to remove the filter for the US. Then go through the Advanced Filter options on the left and choose your Survey, Year, Geography, and Topic (see this earlier post for hints on this strategy). When you’re done, hit the green down arrows that Hides the filter menu (upper right-hand corner) and returns you to the results screen, where the new table results represent the filters you just applied. Browse around and download away! (Customize Table button, then Download)Filter Menu

There are alternatives to data.census.gov as well: the MCDC for getting decennial and ACS profiles (menu on right side of the screen) the Census Reporter for just the latest ACS data, and the NHGIS for accessing all census data tables past to present.

census_paper_wcib_ops

An Overview of Census Datasets and Census API Examples

This month’s post is a bit shorter, as I have just two announcements I wanted to share about some resources I’ve created.

First, I’ve written a short technical paper that’s just been published as part of the Weissman Center of International Business’ Occasional Papers Series. Exploring US Census Datsets: A Summary of Surveys and Sources provides an overview of several different datasets (decennial census, American Community Survey, Population Estimates Program, and County Business Patterns) and sources for accessing data. The paper illustrates basic themes that are part of all my census-related talks: the census isn’t just the thing that happens every ten years but is an ecosystem of datasets updated on an on-going basis, and there are many sources for accessing data which are suitable for different purposes and designed for users with varying levels of technical skill. In some respects this paper is a super-abridged version of my book, designed to serve as an introduction and brief reference.

Second, I’ve created a series of introductory notebooks on GitHub that illustrate how to use the Census Bureau’s API with Python and Jupyter Notebooks. I designed these for a demonstration I gave at NYU’s Love Data Week back on Feb 10 (the slides for the talk are also available in the repo). I structured the talk around three examples. Example A demonstrates the basics of how the API works along with some best practices, such as defining your variables at the top and progressively building links to retrieve data. It also illustrates the utility of using these technologies in concert, as you can pull data into your script and process and visualize it in one go. I also demonstrate how to retrieve lists of census variables and their corresponding metadata, which isn’t something that’s widely documented. Example B is a variation of A, extended by adding an API key and storing data in a file immediately after retrieval. Example C introduces more complexity, reading variables in from files and looping through lists of geographies to make multiple API calls.

Since I’ve written a few posts on the census API recently, I went back and added an api tag to group them together, so you can access them via a single link.

census api example

Define census API variables, build links, and retrieve data

Census Book

Exploring the US Census Book Published!

My book, Exploring the US Census: Your Guide to America’s Data, has been published! You can purchase it directly from SAGE Publishing or from Barnes and Nobles, Amazon, or your bookstore of choice (it’s currently listed for pre-order on Amazon but its availability there is imminent). It’s $45 for the paperback, $36 for the ebook. Data for the exercises and supplemental material is available on the publisher’s website, and I’ve created a landing page for the book on this site.

Exploring the US Census is the definitive researcher’s guide to working with census data. I place the census within the context of: US society, the open data movement, and the big data universe, provide a crash course on using the new data.census.gov, and introduce the fundamental concepts of census geography and subject categories (aka universes). One chapter is devoted to each of the primary datasets: decennial census (with details about the 2020 census that’s just over the horizon), American Community Survey, Population Estimates Program, and business data from the Business Patterns, Economic Census, and BLS. Subsequent chapters demonstrate how to: integrate census data into writing and research, map census data in GIS, create derivative measures, and work with historic data and microdata with a focus on the Current Population Survey.

I wrote the book as a hybrid between a techie guidebook and an academic text. I provide hands-on exercises so that you learn by doing (techie) while supplying sufficient context so you can understand and evaluate why you’re doing it (academic). I demonstrate how to find and download data from several different sources, and how to work with the data using free and open source software: spreadsheets (LibreOffice Calc), SQL databases (DB Browser for SQLite), and GIS (QGIS). I point out the major caveats and pitfalls of working with the census, along with many helpful tools and resources.

The US census data ecosystem provides us with excellent statistics for describing, studying, and understanding our communities and our nation. It is a free and public domain resource that’s a vital piece of the country’s social, political, and economic infrastructure and a foundational element of American democracy. This book is your indispensable road map for navigating the census. Have a good trip!

See the series – census book tag for posts about the content of the book, additional material that expands on that content (but didn’t make it between the covers), and the writing process.